Russia’s mortgage market ended September with strong figures. Banks issued 133,600 mortgage loans worth RUB 641.5 billion. Lending volume rose by 61% month on month and 59% year on year.
The average loan for a new-build property reached RUB 5.9 million, compared with RUB 3.83 million in the secondary market.
However, higher lending volumes do not mean that market-rate mortgages have become affordable. Bank interest rates remain high, and a significant share of demand depends on subsidised programmes.
This week, market participants again discussed the prospects for the family mortgage programme. Potential changes to its terms remain one of the key factors that could affect demand for new-build homes.
The central contradiction in the mortgage market is that increased lending has yet to be accompanied by a comparable improvement in housing affordability for buyers without government support.
Moscow’s primary housing market is showing signs of cooling.
In September, around 4,900 shared-equity construction agreements (DDUs) for residential properties were registered in Moscow. This was 33% fewer than a year earlier. Over the first nine months, the number of registered DDUs fell by 34.2%.
The picture is different in the Moscow Region. In the third quarter, demand for new-build homes in the region increased by more than a third.
This divergence shows that demand is shifting unevenly even within the wider Moscow metropolitan area.
For buyers, the total transaction budget, transport accessibility, project quality and financing terms are becoming increasingly important. For developers, the challenge is to offer a product that matches the current purchasing power of their target audience.
However, the difference in trends should not automatically be attributed solely to buyers moving from Moscow to the surrounding region. Such a conclusion would require additional data on the structure of transactions and buyer characteristics.
As competition for demand intensifies, developers’ marketing and sales expenses are increasing.
Acquiring a single buyer for a new-build apartment costs developers RUB 200,000–500,000. The cost of an individual lead reaches RUB 20,000–50,000 and increases by 15–30% annually.
Online channels account for 70–80% of enquiries.
These figures show that construction and debt-servicing costs are not the only expenses that matter to developers. The actual cost of making a sale—including the expenditure required to find a buyer and bring the transaction to completion—is becoming increasingly significant.
Another signal has been the increase in the volume of cancelled shared-equity construction agreements in 2026.
Taken together, these trends draw attention to the quality of demand. A project’s financial stability depends not only on the number of enquiries or signed agreements, but also on buyers’ ability to complete transactions.
One persistent question in the market is why property prices do not fall in step with sales.
Over the year, the price gap between new-build and resale housing narrowed by five percentage points.
A narrower gap does not necessarily mean that primary-market housing has become cheaper. It may reflect differences in the rates at which prices have changed in the two segments.
For buyers, the price per square metre is not the only consideration. The total cost of purchasing a home also matters: the down payment, mortgage interest rate, renovation costs and completion timeline.
For developers, cutting prices is not always the first tool used to stimulate sales. Decisions are influenced by project costs, debt burdens and financial obligations.
Future market trends will therefore depend not only on asking prices, but also on the actual terms of completed transactions.
The commercial property segment is following its own trajectory.
Investment in commercial real estate reached RUB 378 billion, an increase of 8% year on year.
Against the backdrop of difficult financing conditions in the residential market, this shows that investor interest in property has not disappeared, although investment decisions in different segments are driven by different factors.
When assessing such investments, the key considerations remain asset quality, rental potential, the stability of cash flow and financing terms.
Growth in aggregate investment volume does not, by itself, indicate equally favourable conditions across all commercial property categories. A more precise assessment requires separate analysis of offices, warehouses, retail and other segments.
New legislative initiatives affecting mortgages and property transactions were discussed this week.
The Bank of Russia kept the existing macroprudential limits and surcharges on mortgage lending unchanged for the first quarter of 2027.
The State Duma also considered, in the first reading, a bill requiring mortgage agreements between private individuals to be notarised.
Potential changes to the family mortgage programme and regulation of individual housing construction remain in focus.
For market participants, these initiatives matter not only from a legal perspective. Changes to lending and transaction requirements affect access to financing, transaction timelines and buyers’ costs.
However, legislative proposals still under consideration must not be treated as rules that have already entered into force.
Events at the end of October reveal a real estate market that is increasingly difficult to describe as moving in a single direction.
Mortgage lending is growing, but access to market-rate loans remains limited. Demand for new builds in Moscow and the Moscow Region is changing in different ways. Developers face rising costs of attracting buyers, while price trends do not always follow changes in transaction volumes.
Meanwhile, investment activity in commercial real estate continues, and government regulation still shapes conditions across the market.
The central question is no longer just how much property will be sold, but on what financial terms those transactions will take place.
The cost of borrowing, the resilience of buyer demand and the economics of development projects will determine how the market evolves.
Our managers will help you make an informed decision and find the right property.
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