One of the week's main developments was the first set of mortgage lending results following the changes to the family mortgage programme on 1 October.
According to preliminary estimates, Russian banks issued approximately 77,000 mortgage loans worth RUB 305 billion in October. This was 28% fewer loans and 38% less in value than a year earlier.
The sharpest decline was in government-supported programmes. Following September's surge, subsidised mortgage issuance fell to around 20,000 loans worth RUB 117 billion, almost three times below the previous year's level.
Market-rate mortgages, meanwhile, showed more resilient dynamics. In October, banks issued approximately 57,000 loans under market-rate programmes.
The changes are particularly apparent in the composition of demand. According to one of the largest banks, the share of new-build properties in mortgage issuance fell by 21 percentage points from September to 41.1% in October. The share of completed homes reached 33.3%.
These figures indicate that the primary housing market remains highly dependent on subsidised lending.
September's growth was largely driven by buyers seeking to secure loans before the rules changed. October demonstrated how quickly demand can decline once that period ends.
The key question for the coming months is whether the new-build market can sustain sales without repeated short-term surges prompted by anticipated changes to mortgage programmes.
In October 2026, 8,046 transactions were registered in the Moscow region's new-build market. That was 20.6% fewer than September's 10,137 transactions.
The decline affected Old Moscow, New Moscow and the Moscow region, with the sharpest drop in New Moscow.
At the same time, supply in the capital's primary market continued to grow.
By the end of October, approximately 57,900 apartments and units were listed for sale, up 1.9% from the previous month and 6.6% year on year.
The number of projects with active sales reached 434, compared with 427 in September.
The composition of supply is changing particularly noticeably. The mass-market segment's share fell to approximately 47%, while the number of available units in more expensive categories continued to rise.
In the premium segment, the number of listed units increased by 54.5% over the year.
The market is therefore facing two simultaneous developments: buyers are becoming less active while the range of properties for sale is expanding.
For developers, this means stronger competition and longer sales periods. For buyers, it means more opportunities to compare projects, though not necessarily lower prices.
Against the backdrop of falling sales of homes under construction, the resale market is showing positive momentum.
In the first nine months of 2026, approximately 68,600 residential resale transactions between private individuals were registered in Moscow, 11% more than a year earlier.
In the Moscow region, the figure reached 81,200 transactions, an increase of 39%.
Positive trends are also visible elsewhere. Transactions rose by 20% in St Petersburg and by 38% in the Leningrad region.
The price difference remains an important factor. In some locations, completed apartments can cost 15–20% less than comparable new-build properties.
Properties in buildings completed several years ago often offer features comparable to those of modern residential developments.
Buyers can assess the building's actual condition, neighbourhood infrastructure and the quality of a finished apartment without assuming the risks of waiting for construction to be completed.
However, growth in the resale market does not mean buyers are abandoning new builds altogether. Rather, demand is being redistributed between segments as purchase costs, mortgage availability and property readiness become increasingly important.
October once again highlighted a contradiction in the Russian property market: weaker buyer activity has not been accompanied by a general fall in prices.
According to one estimate, the average asking price per square metre in Moscow new builds reached RUB 750,000. The figure rose by 3% over the month and 14.2% over the year.
Price trends nevertheless vary considerably between housing classes and individual projects.
An increase in the average price per square metre does not necessarily mean that every apartment has risen in price by a similar amount. The composition of supply affects the indicator: a higher proportion of expensive projects can push up the average even when prices within individual developments remain stable.
Offers with substantial individual discounts are also appearing. In certain projects, discounts for full payment can reach 33%.
Such terms, however, are not representative of the market as a whole. They usually apply to selected apartments and depend on the payment method.
The result is a market in which advertised prices remain high while actual purchase terms increasingly diverge.
Buyers therefore need to compare not only the price per square metre but also the total transaction budget, including discounts, instalment plans, mortgages and additional expenses.
One of the week's most significant developments was an updated forecast for the residential construction market.
Analysts expect demand for new builds to recover slowly in 2027. A more sustained revival is not expected before 2028.
By the end of 2026, the monetary value of sales of homes under construction could fall from RUB 5.2 trillion to RUB 4.5–4.7 trillion. For 2027, the forecast is RUB 4.4–4.6 trillion.
The challenge concerns not only sales volumes but also the financial resilience of development projects.
As of 1 October, 121.9 million square metres of housing were under construction in Russia. Of this, 33.6 million square metres, or approximately 28%, was in projects where sales were significantly lagging behind construction progress.
Further pressure comes from the relationship between project-financing debt and funds held in escrow accounts.
At the beginning of September, escrow balances covered approximately 64% of developers' project-financing debt, five percentage points less than at the beginning of the year.
This means that slowing sales could increase the financial burden on individual projects.
Developers are already responding. The ten largest builders reduced new project launches by 12%, despite growth in launches across the market as a whole.
Market participants are consequently becoming more cautious about new investment decisions. Priorities are gradually shifting from expanding project portfolios to ensuring the resilience of construction already under way.
The individual housing construction market has also attracted attention.
In the first nine months of 2026, completed individual housing construction in Russia totalled 41.4 million square metres, 21% less than in the same period a year earlier.
One of the main challenges remains the high cost of preparing land plots and building infrastructure.
Unlike apartment developments, where the cost of utilities and roads is spread across many apartments, infrastructure costs in cottage communities are borne by a relatively small number of households.
Against this background, an expansion of government support for utilities and road infrastructure for individual housing projects is being discussed.
Under the Stimulus programme for 2027–2029, co-financing of the relevant works is planned in 19 Russian regions.
The support is expected to enable the completion of more than 1.5 million square metres of individual housing.
However, government infrastructure support does not automatically mean lower prices for country houses. The eventual impact will depend on funding levels, participation conditions and the extent to which developers' costs actually decline.
For the country property market, this is an important signal: the development of individual housing increasingly depends not only on demand for private homes but also on the availability of prepared land, utilities and financing.
The first week of November demonstrated how quickly the property market responds to changes in financial conditions.
October's decline in mortgage issuance confirmed the new-build market's strong dependence on government support programmes. Primary-market sales fell while supply continued to increase.
The resale market, meanwhile, is showing more resilient demand, and buyers are increasingly assessing properties based on total acquisition costs and the ability to use them immediately after purchase.
For developers, sales rates, financing costs and the adequacy of escrow balances are coming to the fore.
In the country property market, infrastructure remains the central issue, without which large-scale individual housing development is difficult.
The week's main conclusion is that the property market is gradually shifting from a battle for sales volumes to a battle for the financial resilience of transactions and projects.
Access to credit, buyers' actual purchasing power and developers' ability to adapt their plans will determine market conditions in the coming months.
Our managers will help you make an informed decision and find the right property.
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