One of the week’s major developments was the publication of October sales statistics for new-build housing across Russia.
During the month, developers sold around 43,000 apartments under shared-equity construction agreements. This was 28% fewer than in October of the previous year.
The decline was even more pronounced in floor area: sales volume fell by 29.7% to 1.9 million sq. m.
The average size of an apartment sold decreased by 2% to 45 sq. m. At the same time, the average price of a purchased home rose by 4.7% to RUB 9.4 million per apartment.
Total revenue for developers of multifamily housing amounted to RUB 406.6 billion, down 24.9% year on year.
These figures reflect an important shift: not only is the number of transactions declining, but so is the cash flow generated by sales of homes under construction.
Meanwhile, the average purchase budget continues to rise. Buyers are purchasing fewer apartments with slightly less floor area, but spending more on each individual property.
For developers, this trend creates additional pressure. Project financing requires certain sales rates to be maintained, and lower receipts from buyers may affect debt-servicing costs.
As a result, the key indicator is not just the price per square metre but also a project’s ability to generate sufficient sales at the prevailing cost of financing.
The most pronounced changes are occurring in the capital’s mass-market segment.
In October 2026, around 900 transactions under shared-equity construction agreements were registered for mass-market new builds in Moscow. This was 24% fewer than in September and 63% below the level recorded in October of the previous year.
At the same time, the supply of primary housing considered relatively affordable by Moscow standards is shrinking.
Around 8,800 apartments and units were listed for sale, 27% fewer than a year earlier. Supply declined by 1% over the month.
The weighted average price per square metre reached RUB 442,100, up 1% over the month and 15% over the year.
Not a single new mass-market project entered the market in October.
Buyer activity is therefore declining much faster than prices. Moreover, even as sales fall, the average asking price continues to rise.
One reason is the limited number of new projects and the changing composition of construction in the capital. Developers are increasingly focusing on more expensive segments, where financial models may be more resilient amid high construction costs and expensive borrowing.
For buyers, this means a further reduction in the choice of relatively affordable new builds within Moscow.
For developers, it means having to balance price levels, sales rates and project economics.
A study published this week illustrates the scale of the price gap between new-build homes in Moscow and the surrounding Moscow Region.
In the mass-market segment, the average price per square metre in Old Moscow reached RUB 438,600, compared with RUB 235,600 in the Moscow Region.
The difference is 86%.
The gap is even more pronounced when comparing average purchase budgets: RUB 21.8 million per apartment in Moscow versus RUB 10.9 million in the surrounding region.
In the business-class segment, a square metre costs an average of RUB 570,500 in Old Moscow and RUB 291,900 in the Moscow Region, a difference of 95%.
The average budget for a business-class apartment is RUB 33.2 million in Moscow and RUB 15.8 million in the Moscow Region.
Thus, buyers of properties in comparable classes face fundamentally different budgets within the same metropolitan area.
However, a lower apartment price does not always mean a proportionately better purchase.
When choosing a home, buyers need to consider transport accessibility, daily commuting costs, infrastructure quality, the area’s development prospects and the property’s liquidity.
For developers in the Moscow Region, the substantial price gap creates opportunities to attract buyers who are unwilling to purchase housing within Moscow at current prices.
Nevertheless, it is too early to speak of a guaranteed large-scale shift in demand: a decision to relocate depends not only on property prices but also on the buyer’s lifestyle.
October statistics for the Moscow Region confirm that lower prices do not shield the market from the broader cooling of demand.
During the month, around 4,300 shared-equity construction agreements were signed for new builds in the Moscow Region.
That is 21% fewer than in September and 26% below the October 2025 level.
Meanwhile, the volume of supply increased by 4% over the month to 42,500 apartments and units.
The weighted average price per square metre was RUB 237,200, up 2% month on month and 14% year on year.
The share of mortgage-backed transactions also declined, falling by five percentage points over the month to 69%.
Changes to the terms of family mortgages from October 1 affected demand. In September, some buyers sought to complete transactions before the new rules came into effect, creating an elevated comparison base.
The October decline must therefore be viewed in the context of the preceding surge in activity.
Nevertheless, the situation is revealing: supply is growing, transaction numbers are falling, and prices remain on an upward trajectory.
For buyers, this provides more choice. For developers, it increases the need to compete not only on location and project features but also on purchase financing terms.
Declining buyer activity is gradually affecting developers’ decisions about launching new projects.
In October 2026, the number of apartment buildings on which developers began construction was 29% lower than a year earlier.
At the same time, 11 Russian developers returned to the market with new projects after a period without launches.
This pattern illustrates the uneven nature of the development market. Some companies are reducing investment activity, while others continue building their future project pipelines.
Another indicator of the sector’s condition is the ratio between outstanding project-financing debt and funds held in escrow accounts.
Data published in November showed that escrow coverage of project financing improved over the month in 41 regions but deteriorated year on year in 47 regions.
This does not imply the same level of risk for every developer. Financial resilience depends on the composition of the project portfolio, construction stage, sales pace and lending terms.
Nevertheless, the trend demonstrates the growing importance of cash-flow management.
For developers, the coming months may be a period of more cautious project planning, revised launch schedules and closer scrutiny of the financial model of each residential complex.
One of the week’s most important developments was the discussion of housing affordability involving the Bank of Russia and the State Duma.
Speaking in parliament, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina highlighted a fundamental problem in the housing market: mortgage affordability and housing affordability are not the same thing.
Subsidised programmes do allow certain groups of buyers to obtain loans at reduced interest rates.
However, some of this benefit may be offset by rising property prices.
As a result, a buyer receives a lower rate but has to purchase an apartment at a higher price and take out a larger loan.
For those who are not eligible for government support, the situation may be even more difficult: housing prices are rising while market mortgage rates remain high.
This discussion is especially relevant against the backdrop of the October figures.
New-build sales are declining, Moscow’s mass-market segment is losing buyers, and the average price per square metre continues to rise.
Thus, the issue of housing affordability is gradually expanding beyond a discussion focused solely on interest rates.
Addressing it requires attention to the supply of apartments at different price points, construction costs, infrastructure development, real household incomes and the financing terms available to developers.
For the market, this is an important signal: future government policy may increasingly be assessed not by the number of subsidised loans issued but by whether purchasing a home actually becomes more affordable.
The events of November 9–13 show that the Russian real estate market faces an increasingly visible contradiction.
The number of transactions is declining, but average housing prices continue to rise.
Developers are reducing new project launches, yet they cannot cut prices quickly and substantially without putting project economics at risk.
Buyers are looking for more affordable options, but even moving from Moscow to the surrounding region does not always solve the problem of the total cost of owning a home.
Mortgage programmes remain a vital tool for supporting demand, although their effectiveness depends increasingly on price levels.
The central shift is that the market is gradually moving from a discussion of construction volumes and mortgage issuance to a more fundamental question: genuine housing affordability.
The week’s main conclusion: a lower interest rate alone does not make property affordable if the price per square metre rises faster than buyers’ financial means.
In the coming months, the balance between prices, household incomes, borrowing costs and developers’ financial resilience will determine how the market develops.
Our managers will help you make an informed decision and find the right property.
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