Moscow’s housing market is entering a period in which overall market trends no longer tell the whole story. Sales are declining in some segments, demand is holding up in others, and developers are launching new mass-market residential projects less frequently. Meanwhile, prices continue to rise even where buyers have noticeably become less active.
The main change is not simply a slowdown in the market. The behaviour of its participants is changing: buyers are assessing prices and construction readiness more carefully, while developers are taking a more cautious approach to launching new projects.
One of the clearest signals is the absence of new mass-market projects entering Moscow’s primary housing market in the third quarter of 2026. According to analysts at Metrium, sales launched in 12 new residential complexes in the capital during this period. Seven belonged to the premium segment, two to the high-budget segment, and three to the business class.
A year earlier, 11 projects entered the market in the third quarter, compared with 12 in 2024. However, the structure of supply has changed considerably: in 2026, new launches were concentrated mainly in more expensive categories.
In the first nine months of the year, 30 new residential complexes launched in Old Moscow, compared with just two in New Moscow.
This pattern of launches reflects the challenges of planning new mass-market projects. Developers must take into account financing costs, construction costs and buyers’ purchasing power. When future sales are uncertain, launching a new project becomes a riskier decision.
However, the absence of new launches does not mean that the supply of mass-market housing will immediately shrink: projects launched earlier are still being sold. Rather, it signals developers’ caution and the potential impact of today’s decisions on the future structure of supply.
High-budget housing is showing mixed trends. In the premium segment, demand in the third quarter rose by 26% compared with the previous quarter and by 2% year on year. Supply increased by 18% quarter on quarter and by 43% year on year. The weighted average price per square metre reached approximately RUB 915,000, 13% higher than a year earlier.
The picture is different in the elite and deluxe segments. According to Metrium, 13,600 sq. m of housing was sold under shared-equity construction agreements (DDUs) in the third quarter, 38.7% less than a year earlier. Sales revenue fell by 41.6% to RUB 24.9 billion. This was the lowest quarterly result by floor area since the third quarter of 2022.
The average price per square metre nevertheless reached RUB 2.58 million, up 7.9% year on year. It was virtually unchanged quarter on quarter.
These figures show why it would be misleading to speak of a single trend across the entire high-end property market. Demand in the premium segment remains relatively strong, while DDU sales in the elite segment have weakened noticeably.
Prices are not the only factor influencing buyers. In the high-budget segment, the share of investment purchases is declining, while end users are increasingly choosing completed properties or projects at advanced stages of construction. For them, certainty about the final outcome matters more than the opportunity to profit from an early-stage resale.
DDU statistics do not cover every transaction involving high-end housing: some apartments in completed buildings are sold under purchase-and-sale agreements. Therefore, the decline in this indicator should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent fall across the entire luxury property market.
In the elite segment, the number of listed units increased by 28% year on year to approximately 2,500. The share of supply in completed projects reached 19.9%, up 6.7 percentage points from a year earlier.
Supply also increased in the premium segment, rising by 43% over the year. At the same time, the average price per square metre rose by 13%.
So far, a wider choice for buyers has not led to a general decline in asking prices. Developers continue to base their pricing on construction costs, project characteristics and their own financial models. But when supply grows faster than demand, competition for buyers intensifies.
In these conditions, individual deal terms, apartment readiness, layout and the ability to move into or use a property immediately may become increasingly important. However, a rise in listed supply alone does not prove that discounts will become widespread: that conclusion would require separate data on actual transaction prices and discount levels.
Buyers are becoming more selective. The property class or prestige of a location is no longer the only consideration; the relationship between price, construction readiness and purchase terms also matters. In some segments, a larger supply gives buyers more opportunities to compare projects and negotiate.
For developers, the key question is how realistic sales plans are given current prices and financing costs. The lack of new mass-market launches and the growth of supply in more expensive segments point to different approaches to risk: some companies are more cautious about launching new sites, while others continue to bring projects to market for buyers with greater purchasing power.
It is still too early to speak of a single crisis scenario for Moscow’s real estate market. The data show not a simultaneous decline across all segments, but diverging trends.
The key question for the coming months is whether demand can absorb the growing supply without significant adjustments to prices and developers’ plans. The answer will depend on access to financing, buyers’ actual incomes and how quickly sales strategies change across different market segments.
Sources: Metrium analytical reports on third-quarter 2026 results in the premium, elite and deluxe new-build markets, as well as on new projects launched in Moscow.
Our managers will help you make an informed decision and find the right property.
